Ritratto di massimiliano.tancioni@uniroma1.it

Modalità: presenza e remoto
Presenza: Lunedi (16.00-18.00); Martedi (16.00-18.00); Giovedi (15.00-17.00) in presenza
Remoto: su prenotazione - scrivere mail al docente

Massimiliano Tancioni

Position: Full Professor, Department of Economics & Law - Sapienza University of Rome, Italy - Coordinator of the Ph.D. in Economics - Sapienza University of Rome

Address: Dipartimento di Economia e Diritto,
Via del Castro Laurenziano 9,
00161, Rome, Italy
Email: massimiliano.tancioni@uniroma1.it
Tel: +39 0649766348

Research interests:

Macroeconomics; Imperfect labor markets modelling; Imperfect credit markets modelling; Macro-dynamics and business cycle analysis; Time series and Bayesian econometrics; Econometric modelling; Policy simulation and forecasting;

Appointments (academic, main)
2020 - present: Full professor in Economic Policy, Department of Economics and Law (Section: Economics) - Sapienza University of Rome,
Italy
2015 - 2019: Associate professor in Economic Policy, Department of Economics and Law (Section: Economics) - Sapienza University of Rome,
Italy
2007 - 2015: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics & Law (former Department of Public Economics) - Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
2006 - 2007: Researcher, Department of Economics & Law (former Department of Public Economics) - Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
2004 - 2006: Post-Doc Research Grant, Department of Public Economics - Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
1999 - 2000: Research Grant, CEIS - University of Rome "Tor Vergata"

Appointments (professional)

2020 - present: Presidency of the Lazio Region (Presidenza della Regione Italiana del Lazio) - Appointed member of the task force for the
implementation of the regional response to the economic effects of the SARS-2-Cov pandemics. Position: Academic expert
2019 - present: Italian Ministry of Labour and Social Policies (Ministero del Lavoro e delle Politiche Sociali - MLPS) - Appointed member of
the task force for the Italian pension system reform (tavolo tecnico pensioni). Position: Academic expert
2019 - present: Italian Ministry of Health (Ministero della Salute - MdS)- within the scientific agreement with the Department of Economics
and Law, Sapienza University of Rome - Applied research on the analysis of direct and indiect costs on the provision of diagnostic services
finalized to the update of the National Heath System's payments to private providers. Position: scientific responsible
2019-20: National Council for the Economy and Labour (Consiglio Nazionale dell'Economia e del Lavoro - CNEL) - Consultant (external expert) in
applied macroeconomic research for the analysis and simulation of public policies - Rome, Italy. Position: Senior expert in applied
macroeconomics and policy simulation
2019: Italian Presidency of the Council of Ministers (Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri - PCM) - within the scientific agreement with the
Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome - Applied macroeconomic research for the analysis of the financial
sustainability of the Milano-Cortina Winter Italian Olympics canditature - Rome, Italy. Position: scientific responsible - applied
macroeconomics, event and policy simulation
2018-19: National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies (Istituto Nazionale per l'Analisi delle Politiche Pubbliche - INAPP) -
Consultant (expert) in applied macroeconomic research for the analysis, forecasting and simulation of employment needs and effects of labor
market policies - Rome, Italy. Position: Senior expert in applied macroeconomics and policy simulation.
2018: National Confederation of Handicraft and SMEs (Confederazione Nazionale dell'Artigianato e della Piccola e Media Impresa - CNA) -
Consultant for the analysis and simulation of the macroeconomic effects from the activation of the safeguard clauses on indirect taxes - Rome,
Italy. Position: Senior expert in applied macroeconomics and policy simulation.
2017-19: Lazio Region Labour Office (Assessorato al Lavoro della Regione Italiana del Lazio) - within the scientific agreement with the
Department of Economics and Law. Technical assistance for the implementation of an econometric model for the anticipation of job openings and
training requirement - Rome, Italy. Position: scientific responsible and coordinator, expert in applied macroeconomics and policy simulation.
2017: EurpeAid/136124/IH/SER/TR Technical assistance for "Increasing the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Family and Social Policies
in the Field of Social Inclusion Policies" (ICMoFSP) - Turkey. Position: Scientific responsible (macro) and senior expert in applied
macroeconomics and policy simulation.
2015: Italian National Authority for the Communications (Autorità per le Garanzie nelle Comunicazioni - AGCOM) - . Project "Screen", Rome,
Italy. Position: scientific responsible for the Sapienza University of Rome research team. Expert in large-scale macroeconomic modelling and
simulation. Task: simulating the cross-sectoral effects of the Italian broadband investment plan through an Input/Ouptut-based general
equilibrium model of the Italian Economy.
2015: Sapienza University of Rome - within the scientific agreement with the Chamber of Commerce of Rome (Camera di Commercio della provincia
di Roma) - Simulation of the economic and fiscal effects of the 2016 Jubilee under different scenarios. Position: scientific responsible,
expert in macroeconomic modeling and simulation
2013-16: Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini (FGB) - within the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) Europe 2020 EU-
funded project "Forecasting Skill Supply and Demand in Europe". Partnership with: Warwick Institute for Employment Research, Alphametrics
Ltd., Cambridge Econometrics, Charles University, Economix Research and Consulting, LIBER/ROA. Team leader institution: Warwick Institute for
Employment Research, U.K. Position: scientific coordinator for FGB and expert in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium labor market modeling
and forecasting
2014-16: Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini (FGB) - within the Italian Institute for the Training and Organization of Labor (ISFOL) project
"Research services for the implementation of a macroeconometric labor market simulation model and applications in mid-term forecasting
exercises", Rome, Italy. Position: scientific coordinator and expert in labor market modeling and forecasting
2011-13: ISMERI Europa - within the FP7 EU-funded project "AUGUR - Challenges for Europe in the World 2030". Team leader institution: Centre
National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS-FR), Paris, France. Position: scientific coordinator for ISMERI Europa and expert in
macroeconometrics and macroeconomic forecasting.
2010-12: Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance / State General Accounting (Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze / Ragioneria Generale
dello Stato - RGS-MEF) - within the scientific agreement with the Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome. Research
topic: Pojecting, building and simulating the Pension Expenditure module of the RGS-MEF ITEM macroeconometric model . Position: scientific
coordinator and expert in macroeconomic forecasting, project responsible for the Department of Economics and Law
2011: Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini (FGB) - within the Institutul National de Cercetare Stiintifica in domeniul Muncii si Protectiei Sociale
(RO)-funded project "The Romanian labor market and the crisis". Implementation of a DSGE-LM forecastig model for Romania. Position: scientific
responsible, expert in macroeconomic and labor market modelling
2011: Polish Office for Economic Policy and Regional Development (EPRD) - within the IPA EU-funded project "Technical assistance to enhance
data management, forecasting, monitoring and evaluation capacity of the National Employment Service - EUNES", Belgrade, Republic of Serbia.
Position: Short-term Key expert in labor market modeling and forecasting
2010: Italian Institute for the Training and Organization of Labor (Istituto per la Formazione e Organizzazione del Lavoro - ISFOL), Rome,
Italy. Position: Expert in microeconometric analysis
2009-11: Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini (FGB) - within the EU-funded project "Forecasting Jobs and Skills - FORJOBS". Implementation of DSGE-LM
forecastig models for Spain, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Position: scientific responsible, expert in labor market modeling, estimation
and simulation.
2009-10: Fondazione per la Ricerca sulla Migrazione e sulla Integrazione delle Tecnologie (FORMIT) - within the EU-funded project "Development
of a Methodology and Research of Quantitative Data on the Economics of Security and Resilience in Critical Communications and Information
Infrastructures - SMART-SEC", Rome, Italy. Position: scientific responsible, expert in large scale macroeconomic modeling and simulation
analysis
2008-09: Fondazione per la Ricerca sulla Migrazione e sulla Integrazione delle Tecnologie (FORMIT) - within the EU-funded project "The
Vulnerability of Information System and its inter-sectorial, economic and social impacts - VIS", Rome, Italy. Position: scientific
responsible, expert in large scale macroeconomic modeling and simulation analysis.
2008: Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini (FGB) - within the Sviluppo Lazio S.p.A.-funded project "Attività tecnica di sostegno alla definizione del
quadro previsionale per il Documento di Programmazione Economica e Finanziaria Regionale 2009-2011 del Lazio" Rome, Italy. Position: expert in
macroeconomic modelling and forecasting
2006-09: Sviluppo Lazio Research Office, Rome, Italy. Position: Economic consultant.
2006-07: Italian Presidency of the Council of Ministers / Department of Economic Affairs (Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri / Dipartimento
Affari Economici PCM-DAE), Rome, Italy. Position: economic consultant, expert in public pension expenditure forecasting. Department of
Economic Affairs - Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Rome, Italy
2003-04: Italian Statistical Office - Istat, DSS-DISE, Rome, Italy. Position: Researcher
2003: Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini (FGB) - within the EU-funded project "Stocks and trends in European professions - STEP", Rome, Italy.
Position: Expert in labor market and pension system modelling and forecasting
2001-02: Birkbeck College, University of London - within the project "Assessing the impact of technological innovation and globalisation: the
effects on growth and employment AITEG", London, U.K. Position: junior expert in macroeconomic modelling and simulation
1999: National Research Centre (Centro Nazionale delle Ricerche - CNR). Position: junior research grant

Teaching Experience

-Undergratuate level
2020 - present: Economic Policy - Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, "corso di laurea triennale in Scienze Economiche" - Rome,
Italy
2016 - 2019: Economic Policy - Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, "corso di laurea triennale" - Latina, Italy
2009 - 2010: Economic Policy - Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, "corso di laurea triennale" - Civitavecchia (Rome), Italy
2004 - 2005: Economics - University of Camerino, Faculty of Law - Ascoli Piceno, Italy

-Graduate (master) level
2016 - present: Applied Macroeconomics and Policy - Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, "laurea specialistica EPOS" in
Economics (ENG) - Rome, Italy
2019 - 2020: Advanced Macroeconomics - Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, "laurea specialistica" in Economics (ITA) - Rome,
Italy
2016 - 2017: European Economic Policy - Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, "laurea specialistica" in Economics (ITA) - Rome,
Italy
2010 - 2018: Financial Time Series Econometrics, Master in Banking and Finance, Sapienza University of Rome - Rome, Italy
2007 - 2015: Advanced Econometrics, - Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, "laurea specialistica" in Economics (ITA and ENG) -
Rome, Italy
2007 - 2009: Topics in Economy Policy ("corso di laurea specialistica" in Economics), Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics -
Rome, Italy

-PhD level
2019 - present: Research Methods in Macroeconometrics - PhD in Economics/Doctoral school in Economics, Sapienza University of Rome - Rome,
Italy
2017 - 2018: Econometrics, PhD in Economics/Doctoral school in Economics, Sapienza University of Rome - Rome, Italy
2005 - 2015: Econometrics II, PhD in Economics/Doctoral school in Economics, Sapienza University of Rome - Rome, Italy
2005 - 2015: Econometrics III, PhD in Economics/Doctoral school in Economics, Sapienza University of Rome - Rome, Italy

Society Memberships

. Italian Economic Association
European Economic Association
Royal Economic Association
American Economic Association
Society for Nonlinear Dynamics

Funding Information

2019: Learning rules, heterogeneity and regime-switching policy Interactions. Implications for fiscal policy effectiveness, labor share
dynamics and asset price volatility. Project typology: University. Awarded with post-doc grant. Position: principal Investigator
2019: Direct and indiect costs in the provision of health diagnostic services. Project typology: Institutional scientific agreement between
the Italian Ministry of Health (Ministero della Salute - MdS) and the Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome. Position:
scientific responsible
2018: Asset pricing, rational bubbles and economic dynamics in open economies under financial frictions: modelling, data analysis and
policies. Project typology: University. Position: Investigator
2017: New Keynesian behavioral models: Price-setting and expectation formation processes. Project typology: University. Position: Investigator
2016: Model Misspecification in Finance and Macroeconomics: Methods and Applications. Position: Investigator
2015: Path-Dependent Trajectories under Financial Constraints. Project typology: University. Position: Principal Investigator
2014: Ageing, labor markets and government revenues. Is there room for a fine-tuned fiscal design?. Project typology: University. Position:
Principal Investigator
2012: How to manage the current crisis: a new approach to economic policies. Project typology: University. Position: Investigator
2012: Asimmetrie informative, costi di aggiustamento ed efficienza allocativa: fondamenti microeconomici e implicazioni macroeconomiche.
Project typology: PRIN 2008 (36 months). Project's coordinator: Luca Gabriele Deidda. Scientific responsible: Gaetano Bloise. Position:
Investigator
2011: Imperfezioni e istituzioni nella dinamica delle economie europee. la riforma degli ammortizzatori sociali e le prospettive della
politica dei redditi. Project typology: University. Position: Investigator
2010: Implementating the Pension Expenditure module of the RGS-MEF ITEM macroeconometric model. Project typology: Institutional scientific
agreement between the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance / State General Accounting (Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze / Ragioneria
Generale dello Stato - RGS-MEF) and the Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome. Position: Scientific responsible and
coordinator
2009: A theoretical explanation of the investment puzzle: computable experiments on the role of policy rules in an extended DSGE model.
Project typology: University. Position: Principal Investigator
2008: The interactions of imperfect markets and their effects on credit, investment and unemployment. Project typology: University. Position:
Investigator
2008: Beyond the short run: Business cycle, productivity growth and market imperfections. Project typology: PRIN 2008 (24 months). Project's
responsible: Enrico Saltari. Research units: Sapienza Università di Roma, Università degli Studi di Urbino Carlo Bo, Università degli Studi di
Roma Tor Vergata. Position: Investigator
2005: La stabilizzazione macroeconomica nella UEM: il ruolo dell'incertezza e del comportamento strategico dei sindacati. Project's
responsible: Nicola Acocella. Central Unit: Sapienza Università di Roma. Project typology: PRIN 2005 (24 months). Position: Investigator

Publications in Refereed International Journals

. "Confidence swings and sovereign risk dynamics. STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS, vol. 56, p. 195-206, doi:
10.1016/j.strueco.2020.11.003 (with Valeria Patella)
. "Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries", 2021. THE NORTH AMERICAN
JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, p. 1-33, doi: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101400 (with Elton Beqiraj and Silvia Fedeli)
. "Predicting the spread of COVID-19 in Italy using machine learning. Do socio-economic factors matter?", 2021. STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC
DYNAMICS, vol. 56, p. 310-329, doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.01.001 (with Francesco Bloise)
"Correlates of the (soft) skills of Italian undergraduate students". JOURNAL OF PUBLIC FINANCE AND PUBLIC CHOICE (PRINT), 2020, vol. 35, p.
107-140,
doi: 10.1332/251569120X15849364372629 (with Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Silvia Fedeli)
"Bureocratic Reshuffling and Efficiency: Do n-Competing Bureaus Determine Inefficient Results? (with Elton Beqiraj and Silvia Fedeli),
Mathematics, 2019, 7, 998. 1-12. doi: 10.3390/math7100998
"Vicarelli's Keynes and the New Keynesian Analytical Method", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2018, 41 (1): 36-55. doi:
10.1080/01603477.2017.1373026
"Contractionary Technology Shocks" (with Francesco Giuli), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017, 21 (7): 1752-1789. doi: 10.1017/S1365100515001054
"The FGB-LM Model", (with Elton Beqiraj), Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2013, 20 (2): 430-445
"R&D, patents and Stock Return volatility", (with Mariana Mazzucato), Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2012, 22: 811-832. doi:
10.1007/s00191-012-0289-x
"Real rigidities, productivity improvements and investment dynamics", (with Francesco Giuli), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012,
36 (7): 100-118, doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2011.09.002.
"The FGB-LM model: structure and recent forecasts of the Italian labour-market stocks and flows", (with Giuseppe Ciccarone), Cedefop Research
Papers, 2012, n. 18: 147-168, Publication Office of the EU, Luxembourg.
"Monetary Policy, Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External habits: a G7 Comparison", (with Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Lorenza Rossi), Applied
Economics, 2011, 43(21): 2721-2738
"Nominal v. real wage rigidities in New Keynesian models with hiring costs: A Bayesian evaluation", (with Marianna Riggi) Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control, 2010, 34(7): 1305-1324.
"Innovations, wages and profits", (with Mario Pianta)", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2008, vol. 31, n. 1: 103-125
"Innovation and idiosyncratic risk: an industry- and firm-level analysis", (with Mariana Mazzucato) , Industrial and Corporate Change, 2008,
17(4): 779-811
"Indices that Capture Creative Destruction: Questions and Implications", (with Mariana Mazzucato), Revue d'Economie Industrielle, 2005, n.
110: 199-220
"A Macroeconometric Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Technological Change and Trade on Employment", (with R. Simonetti), Journal of
Interdisciplinary Economics, 2002, vol. 13: 185-221 London

Publications in Refereed Italian Journals

"Riforme recenti e prossime del mercato del lavoro italiano. Una valutazione econometrica degli effetti " (with Elton Beqiraj), Rivista delle
Politiche Sociali / Italian Journal of Social Policy, 2013, n. 1/2: 4-25
"FGB-MDL-MKIII: Derivazione teorica, stima e simulazione del nuovo modello del mercato del lavoro italiano" (with Elton Beqiraj), Economia & L
Lavoro, 2013, n. 2: 139-168
"Dinamiche di transizione ed esiti lavorativi" (with Michele Giammatteo and Emiliano Mandrone), Economia & Lavoro, 2012, n. 1: 79-103
"Il nuovo modello di previsione dei flussi del mercato del lavoro FGB-MdL: aspetti di metodo e di struttura", (with Francesco Giuli),
Economia&Lavoro, 2009, n. 3: 29-50
"Il modello FGB-STEP in prospettiva comparativa", (with A. Bagnai, F. Carlucci, e R. Schiattarella), Economia & Lavoro, 2007, n. 1: 193-196
"Un modello di simulazione per l'analisi del mercato del lavoro", (with A. Bagnai, F. Carlucci, e R. Schiattarella), Economia & Lavoro, 2006,
n. 3: 123-149
"The Italian Public Pension System Expenditure: Some Simulation Results from Sensitivity Analysis", Rivista di Statistica Ufficiale, 2002, n.
2: 5-31, Franco Angeli, Rome

Working Papers (refereed)

"Regime switches in the roll-over of sovereign risk" (with Elton Beqiraj and Valeria Patella), Working Papers Series of the Department of
Public Economics, 2019, n. 191 Sapienza University of Rome
"Should the US be concerned about the European Labor Market Structural reforms?" (with Elton Beqiraj), Working Papers Series of the Department
of Public Economics, 2017, n. 177 Sapienza University of Rome.
"Fiscal Consolidation and Sovereign Risk in the Euro-zone Periphery" (with Elton Beqiraj), Working Papers Series of the Department of Public
Economics, 2014, n. 167, Sapienza University of Rome.
"Evaluating Labor Market Targeted Fiscal Policies in High Unemployment EZ Countries" (with Elton Beqiraj), Working Papers Series of the
Department of Public Economics, 2014, n. 165, Sapienza University of Rome.
"Price-setting, Monetary Policy and the Contractionary Effects of Productivity Improvements", (with Francesco Giuli) Working Papers of the
Department of Economics, 2012, n. 161, University Roma Tre.
"Contractionary Effects of Supply Shocks: Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation" (with Francesco Giuli), Working Papers Series of the
Department of Public Economics, 2010 n. 131, Sapienza University of Rome
"Firm-specific capital, Productivity Shocks and Investment Dynamics" (with Francesco Giuli), Working Papers Series of the Department of Public
Economics, 2009 n. 120
"Innovation and idiosyncratic risk: an industry and firm-level analysis" (with Mariana Mazzucato), Open University-IKD Working Paper,
n.7/2008, Milton Keynes, U.K.
"Nominal v. Real Wage Rigidities in New Keynesian Models with Hiring Costs: A Bayesian Evaluation" (with Marianna Riggi), Working Papers
Series of the Department of Public Economics, 2008, n. 107
"Monetary Policy, Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: an International Comparison" (with Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Lorenza Rossi),
Working Papers of the Department of Economics, University of Crete, n. 0727/2007
"Disentangling Factors Behind Training Participation in Italy" (with Giuseppe Croce), Working Papers Series of the Department of Public
Economics, 2007 n. 101
"Stock Price Volatility and Patent Citation Dynamics: the Case of the Pharmaceutical Industry" (with Mariana Mazzucato), Open University
Discussion Papers in Economics, vol. 55/2007, Milton Keynes, U.K.
"Rule of Thumb Consumers and External Habits: an International Comparison" (with Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Lorenza Rossi), Working Papers
Series of the Department of Public Economics, 2006, n. 97
"Innovation and Idiosyncratic Risk: an Industry & Firm Level Analysis" (with Mariana Mazzucato), Computing in Economics and Finance, 2005, 81,
Society for Computational Economics.
"Creative Destruction and Idiosyncratic Risk" (with Mariana Mazzucato), Open University Discussion Papers in Economics, n. 50/2005, Milton
Keynes, U.K.
"I Trattamenti Monetari non Pensionistici: approccio computazionale e risultati della sperimentazione sugli archivi INPS-DM10, Anni 1999-2001"
(with Vincenzo Spinelli), Contributi Istat n. 28/2004, Istat, Roma
"L'indagine CIS II sull'innovazione tecnologica nei servizi: un'analisi quantitativa" (with G. Cainelli, N. De Liso, G. Perani, M. Savona),
Working Papers of the Department of Economics, University of Ferrara, n. 15/2004
"Il nuovo modello dinamico di previsione della spesa pensionistica. Formalizzazione algebrica delle relazioni di funzionamento, struttura
della programmazione, basi di dati" (with Francesca Ceccato and Donatella Tuzi), Documenti Istat n. 1/2003, Istat, Rome
"Un modello di previsione della spesa locale per l'assistenza" (with Renato Cogno), Contributi di Ricerca n. 166/2002, IRES Piemonte, Torino

Articles and Chapters in Books

"La condotta fiscale italiana nella visione degli economisti del Fondo Monetario Internazionale", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo
Stato Sociale 2019, pp 265-276 (2019). Sapienza Università Editrice
"L'impatto macroeconomico dell'introduzione di quota 100 nel sistema pensionistico", (with Elton Beqiraj), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor),
Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2019, pp 455-462 (2019). Sapienza Università Editrice
"Effetti macroeconomici della legge di bilancio per il 2019", (with Elton Beqiraj and Paolo D'Imperio), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto
sullo Stato Sociale 2019, pp 380-393 (2019). Sapienza Università Editrice
"Analisi quantitativa degli effetti del reddito di cittadinanza", (with Elton Beqiraj and Paolo D'Imperio), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor),
Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2019, pp 393-402, (2019). Sapienza Università Editrice
"Gli effetti attesi del DL4/2019 (quota 100) sull'evoluzione della spesa pensionistica: un esercizio di simulazione a lungo termine", (with
Elton Beqiraj), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2019, pp 442-455, (2017). Sapienza Università Editrice
"Le previsioni pensionistiche e gli effetti macroeconomici del contenimento della spesa previdenziale", (with Elton Beqiraj), in Pizzuti,
Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2017, pp 420-436, (2017). Sapienza Università Editrice
"Produttività settoriale e decentramento contrattuale", (with Elton Beqiraj) in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2017,
pp 123-134, (2017). Sapienza Università Editrice
"Stagnazione secolare: lo stato del dibattito", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2017, pp 62-68, (2017). Sapienza
Università Editrice
"Esiste una tendenza alla stagnazione secolare?", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2015,420/1, pp 125-132, (2015).
Gruppo Editoriale Simone, Napoli
"Il consolidamento fiscale può stimolare la crescita riducendo il rischio di default e i tassi di interesse? Il caso della periferia
dell'Eurozona" (with Elton Beqiraj), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2015,420/1, pp 87-98, (2015). Gruppo
Editoriale Simone, Napoli
"Dalla rottura non governata della UE all'Europa federale: scenari e implicazioni per il benessere economico e sociale nel Centro e nella
Periferia della UE", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2015,420/1, pp 194-210, (2015). Gruppo Editoriale Simone,
Napoli
"Previsione a lungo termine della spesa previdenziale", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2015,420/1, pp 416-425,
(2015). Gruppo Editoriale Simone, Napoli
"R&D, Patents and Stock Return Volatility" (with Mariana Mazzucato), in Andreas Pyka, Esben Sloth Andersen (editors), Long Term Economic
Development (2013), pp 341-362, Springer
"Effetti macroeconomici di breve-medio periodo della riforma del mercato del lavoro e di quella pensionistica" (with Elton Beqiraj) , in
Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2013,420/1, pp 289-298, (2013). Gruppo Editoriale Simone, Napoli
"Simulazione degli effetti a lungo termine della riforma del sistema pensionistico", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato
Sociale 2013,420/1, pp 298-306, (2013). Gruppo Editoriale Simone, Napoli
"Vacancies as employment predictor", in Mandrone, Emiliano. (editor), Job-vacancies in the Italian labour market: the New ISFOL Help-Wanted
time series, pp 69-78, (2012). ISFOL Temi e Ricerche, Rome, Italy
"Labour Market Analysis and Forecasting Labour Market Needs in the Republic of Serbia" (with Kosovka Ognjenovic and Vladimir Vasic). EUNES
Project final Report, (2011)- Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
"Simulazione a lungo termine della spesa pensionistica e del saldo previdenziale", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale
2011, pp 373-388, (2011) Esselibri, Napoli
"Le fasi della crisi attuale e le sue interpretazioni", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2010, pp 34-48, (2009)
Academia Universa Press ,Milano
"An empirical investigation of the distribution of training among workers in Italy", (with Giuseppe Croce) in Burgio, G., Capparucci, M.,
Sancetta, G., Todisco, E. (editors), "Mercato del lavoro e protezione sociale nell'Unione Europea", (2009), Casa Editrice Università La
Sapienza, Roma
"Long-term sustainability of the Italian public pension system. Policy and simulations", (with Roberto Pizzuti) in Burgio, G., Capparucci, M.,
Sancetta, G., Todisco, E. (editors), "Mercato del lavoro e protezione sociale nell'Unione Europea", (2009), Casa Editrice Università La
Sapienza, Roma
"Le fasi della crisi attuale e le sue interpretazioni", in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2009, pp 34-49, (2009) UTET,
Torino
"Job-vacancies as employment predictor: dynamic properties of the series", in Mandrone, Emiliano (editor) Job-vacancies in the Italian labour
market: the New ISFOL Help-Wanted time series, pp 54-64, (2008) ISFOL UE-FSE, Roma
"Simulazioni a lungo termine degli effetti della revisione dei coefficienti di trasformazione e di una proposta", (with Roberto Pizzuti), in
Pizzuti, Roberto (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2008, pp 325-336, (2008) UTET, Torino
"Simulazione a lungo termine della spesa e del saldo previdenziale", (with Roberto Pizzuti), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato
Sociale 2007, pp 294-312, (2007) UTET, Torino
"La transizione al pensionamento: ruolo delle componenti economiche" (with Emiliano Mandrone), in Partecipation Labour Unemployment Survey, pp
244-270 (2006), ISFOL UE-FSE, Roma
"La partecipazione alla formazione dei lavoratori dipendenti del settore privato" (with Giuseppe Croce e Stefano Lay), in Pizzuti, Roberto
(editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2006, (2006) UTET ,Torino
"Effetti sulla struttura occupazioneale delle modifiche all'età pensionabile" (with Vincenzo Spinelli), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo
Stato Sociale 2006, pp. 284-289 (2006) UTET ,Torino
"Le determinanti delle scelte di uscita dal mercato del lavoro" (with Emiliano Mandrone), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale
2006, (2006) UTET ,Torino
"Simulazione a lungo termine della spesa e del saldo previdenziale" (with Roberto Pizzuti e Michele Raitano), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor)
Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2006), par 4.4.2: 294-324 UTET ,Torino
"Sistema pensionistico e mercato del lavoro: due approfondimenti analitici connessi ai mutamenti introdotti dalla riforma previdenziale del
2004" (par 4.3.1 with Vincenzo Spinelli; 4.3.2 with Emiliano Mandrone), in Pizzuti, Roberto (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2006),
UTET ,Torino
"Le previsioni a medio-lungo termine della spesa pensionistica e della spesa previdenziale del sistema pubblico" (with Roberto Pizzuti), in
Pizzuti, Roberto (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2005) UTET, Torino
"Il modulo previdenza assistenza" (with Francesca Ceccato), in IRES-IRPET-ISTAT La previsione della spesa sociale regionale: il modello MARSS,
(2001) ISTAT, Roma, cap. 6: 169-200

Papers under review

. "Leaning against the bubble. Can theoretical models match the empirical evidence?" (with Giuseppe Ciccarone, Francesco Giuli and Enrico
Marchetti)
"Sources of output variability and risk-sharing channels in the US and the EZ" (with Paolo D'imperio)
"Regime-switches in the roll-over of sovereign risk" (with Elton Beqiraj and Valeria Patella)
"Dual labor markets and heterogeneous bargaining in search models" (with Elton Beqiraj)
"Intended and side-effects of selective wage subsidies" (with Elton Beqiraj)
"Labor subsidization, monetary policy and the international transmission of deflationary expectations" (with Elton Beqiraj)
"Fiscal Consolidation and Sovereign Risk in the Euro-zone Periphery" (with Elton Beqiraj)

Work in progress

. "Secured vs.unsecured credit and non-linear credit cycles" (with Costanza Giannantoni and Valeria Patella)
"Climate shocks, commodoty prices and monetary policy" (with Francesco Lucidi and Marta Pisa)
"Nonlinear triggers of the labor share dynamics" (with Federico D'Amario)
"Uncertainty switches are not financial shocks. Insights for the Pricing of Credit Default Swaps" (with Lorenzo Marchetti)
"Is there a bubble in the US student loans market?" (with Federica Vassalli)
"Did the FED react to rational bubbles?" (with Federica Vassalli)
"Nowcasting the labor market with employer's hiring/firing real time data" (with Tesi Aliaj)
"Does the FED respond to bubbly episodes?" (with Federica Vassalli)

Articles in On-Line Reviews, Blogs, Op-Eds

"Le conseguenze macroeconomiche del SARS-Cov-2: incertezza e scenari di policy", Menabò di Etica ed Economia, marzo 2020
"Europa scopre la politica fiscale: breve descrizione di un percorso di cambiamento", Menabò di Etica ed Economia, febbraio 2020
"Effetti attesi della legge di bilancio 2019: una questione di moltiplicatori fiscali?", Menabò di Etica ed Economia, gennaio 2019
"Austerità espansiva. In cerca di placebo e sofismi?", Menabò di Etica ed Economia, giugno 2018
"E' tutta questione di ipotesi: la spesa pensionistica nelle previsioni del FMI", Menabò di Etica ed Economia, maggio 2018
"L'approccio del Centro Studi della Confindustria alla simulazione degli effetti di shock politici", Menabò di Etica ed Economia, 2016
"Zerovirgola istituzionali". Menabò di Etica ed Economia, 2016
"Il mio Egeo e quello dei migranti". Menabò di Etica ed Economia, 2016
"L'abbandono del vincolo valutario e le sue conseguenze: un contributo al dibattito tra Biasco e Rodano". Menabò di Etica ed Economia, 2015
"Non solo Grecia. Riflessioni sulle implicazioni del vincolo valutario europeo". Menabò di Etica ed Economia, 2015
"Stagnazione secolare o trappola della liquidità?" Menabò di Etica ed Economia, 2015
"Conseguenze scomode e trascurate delle riforme strutturali del mercato del lavoro nell'euro-zona" Menabò di Etica ed Economia, 2014
"Le riforme pro-cicliche del mercato del lavoro, Re: Vision, 2014
"In caso di uscita", (with Gianluigi Nocella), Re: Vision, 2014
"Expansionary contractions vs. self-defeating austerity: cosa sappiamo dei moltiplicatori fiscali?", Nel Merito, 2013

Conferences and Invited Seminars (since 2005)

2020 - "24th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance" - postponed due to COVID19 (exp August 2020),
University of Crete, Rethimno - Greece. Accepted Paper: "Confidence switches in sovereign risk (with V. Patella)
2020 - "28th Annual Symposium Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics" - postponed due to COVID19 (exp Sept. 2020), University of
Zagreb - Croatia. Accepted paper: "Regime-switches in the Rollover of Sovereign Risk" (with E. Beqiraj and V. Patella)
2019 - "Empirical Macro Workshop 2019" - June 2019, University of Ghent - Belgium. Paper presented: "Sources of output variability and risk-
sharing channels in the US and the EZ" (with Paolo D'imperio)
2018 - "INAPP Conference: Prevedere le dinamiche occupazionali a livello di settore e professione" May 2018, Istituto per l'Analisi delle
Politiche Pubbliche, Rome, Italy. Presentation: Modelli teorici ed approcci empirici a confronto
2017 - "Increasing the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Family and Social Policies in the Field of Social Inclusion Policies - final
conference", October 2017, Ankara, Turkey. Presentation: "A high growth scenario"
2017 - "Increasing the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Family and Social Policies in the Field of Social Inclusion Policies",
September 2017, Ankara, Turkey. Presentation: "Scenario simulations for decision-making"
2017 - "Increasing the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Family and Social Policies in the Field of Social Inclusion Policies",
September 2017, Ankara, Turkey. Presentation: "Baseline scenario results"
2017 - "Increasing the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Family and Social Policies in the Field of Social Inclusion Policies", June
2017, Ankara, Turkey. Presentation: "General Modelling Issues"
2017 - "Increasing the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Family and Social Policies in the Field of Social Inclusion Policies", June
2017, Ankara, Turkey. Presentation: "Macro-level analysis"
2016 - "Keynes nel pensiero di Fausto Vicarelli", Faculty of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy. Presentation: "The New
Keynesian analytical method"
2015 - ECB-CEPR Labour Market Workshop "Employment creation after the crisis", European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany. Paper: "Intended and
side-effects of selective wage subsidies" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2015 - La Grecia e l'Europa. I fatti e le conseguenze. Seminar, Sapienza University of Rome. Title: "Evaluating the macroeconomic consequences
of a Greek Yes - and of GRexit"
2014 - Jobs Act, Seminar, with Tommaso Nannicini, Michele Raitano and Francesco Sinopoli, Sapienza University of Rome. Title: "Can LM policies
be effective at the Zero-Lower-Bound?"
2014 - Debunking Austerity: Towards Alternative Economic Policy Scenarios, Conference, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, University of Pisa. Paper:
"Fiscal Consolidation and Sovereign Risk in the Euro-zone Periphery" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2014 - Economic Change and Evolution, Conference, Italian National Accademy "LINCEI" and Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics,
Rome, Italy. Paper: "Evaluating Labor Market Targeted Fiscal Policies in High Unemployment EZ Countries" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2014 - European Economists for an Alternative Economic Policy in Europe, EuroMemo Group Conference, Sapienza University of Rome. Paper:
"Default risk and fiscal consolidation in the periphery of the EZ" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2014 - Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association, University of Trento, 2014. Paper: "Fiscal Consolidation and Sovereign Risk in
the Euro-zone Periphery" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2014 - Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association, University of Trento, 2014. Paper: "Evaluating Labor Market Targeted Fiscal
Policies in High Unemployment EZ Countries" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2014 - Forecasting skill supply and demand in Europe: setting the scene for 2016 forecasts, CEDEFOP Conference, Sapienza University of Rome.
Paper: "LM modelling and policy simulation in interacting open economies" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2013- Forecasting skill demand and supply in Europe: expert seminar on methodology and new ideas, CEDEFOP Conference, European Centre for the
Development of Vocational Training, Thessaloniki, Greece. Paper "Structural modeling and forecasting of labor market stocks and flows" (with
Elton Beqiraj)
2013 - The future of the EZ and of Europe, Conference, Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics, Rome, Italy. Paper: "Sovereign debt,
default risk and fiscal consolidation in the periphery of the EZ" (with Elton Beqiraj).
2013 - Sovereign debt, Workshop with academics of the University of Buenos Aires, Sapienza University of Rome, Faculty of Economics -Rome,
Italy. Paper: "Debt default risk, interest rates and the business cycle" (with Elton Beqiraj)
2012 - Seminar held at the Ministry of Economics and Finance, Department of Economic Analysis, Rome, Italy. Title: FGB-LM MKIII: A Dynamic
Stochastic GE Model for Policy Evaluations (with Elton Beqiraj)
2012 - AUGUR Paris meeting on public policies, AUGUR Challenges for Europe in the World 2030 Conference, Centre National de la Recherche
Scientifique (CNRS-FR), Paris, France. Title: "Future trends for Well-being indicators"
2012 - AUGUR Vienna meeting on methodologies, AUGUR Challenges for Europe in the World 2030 Conference, Wiener Institut für Internationale
Wirtschaftsvergleiche (WIIW), Vienna, Austria. Title: "Modelling the relationship between Well-being, public finances and the economy"
2011 - Seminar, Sapienza University of Rome, Ph.D. school in Economics, Seminar title: "Technology, growth and the business cycle: Theories
and empirical evidence". Rome, Italy
2011 - Building on the skill forecasts: comparing methods and applications, Cedefop Expert conference:. Paper: "The FGB-LM simulation model:
forecasting job and skill needs in Italy". Thessaloniki, Greece
2011 - Italy's Ministry of Labour: EU-funded project FORJOBS final conference, Rome, Italy. Presentation title: "The FORJOBS model structure:
the Italian national-level model and the regional breakdown"
2010 - EU-funded project FORJOBS conference, Castilla-la Mancha Employment Office, Toledo, Spain. Presentation title: "The FORJOBS model
structure: the Spanish and Castilla-La Mancha regional model"
2010 - EU-funded project FORJOBS conference, Bulgarian Employment Agency, Sofia, Bulgaria. Presentation title: "The FORJOBS model structure:
the Bulgarian model"
2010 - EU-funded project FORJOBS conference, Employment Agency of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic. Presentation title: "The FORJOBS
model structure: the the Czech Republic model"
2010 - Seminar, Sapienza University of Rome, Master in European and International Policies and Crisis Management. Seminar title: "Behind the
financial crisis: the role of income distribution". Rome, Italy
2010 - European Commission: EU-funded project SMART-SEC conference. Presentation: "The economic effects of disruptions in critical
communication and information infrastructures". Brussels, Belgium
2009 - Sapienza University of Rome, Seminars of the Department of Public Economics. Seminar: "Contractionary Productivity Improvements:
Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation". Rome, Italy
2009 - EU-funded project VIS conference, European Commission, Bruxelles, Belgium. Presentation title: "Vulnerability of information systems:
predicted effects of service disruptions".
2008 - 12th Annual International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, University of Crete, Rethymno, Crete island,
Greece. Paper: "Monetary Policy, Rule of Thumb Consumers and External Habits: an International comparison"
2008 - American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA, Session: Technological change and Stock Price Dynamics.
Paper: "Stock Price Volatility and Patent Citation Dynamics: the case of the pharmaceutical industry" (with Mariana Mazzucato)
2007 - Welfare State tra pubblico e privato, tra universlismo e selettività, CRISS Workshop, Department of Economics, University of Siena,
Siena, Italy. Presentation title: "Le prospettive del sistema previdenziale"
2007 - DIME Conference on Finance Innovation and Inequality: questions and implications for future research, Regents Park Conference Center,
London, U.K. Paper: "Stock Price Volatility and Radical Innovation" (with Mariana Mazzucato)
2007 - EAEPE Conference Economic Growth, Development and Institutions, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal. Paper: "Innovations and the labor
share"
2006 - EAEPE Conference Developing Economies, Multiple Trajectories, Multiple Developments, Galatasaray University, Istanbul, Turkey. Paper:
"Innovations Wages and Profits"
2005 - Joint UNECE/ILO/Eurostat Conference on the Quality of Work, International Labour Organization (ILO), Geneva, Switzerland. Paper: "Help
Wanted and Job Vacancies: An Analysis of the Predictive Capabilities of the CSA-Isfol Time Series for Employment and Unemployment
Fluctuations" (with Emiliano Mandrone)
2005 - Seminar, Faculty of Economics of the University of Urbino, Urbino, Italy. Seminar title: "The RBC Story and the Conditional
Countercyclical Dynamics of Hours Worked: A SVAR-based Analysis"
2005 - Social Pacts, Employment and Growth: A Reappraisal of Ezio Tarantelli's Thought, Conference, Sapienza University of Rome. Paper: "STEP:
A Forecasting Model for the Italian Labour Market". Rome, Italy
2005 - Workshop on Innovation, demand and industrial dynamics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy. Paper: "Wage-Profit Dynamics and Innovation"

Editorial board - reviewer activity

Editorial boards: Etica ed Economia, Panaeconomicus
Reviewer for: Applied Economics; Economia e Lavoro; Economic Modelling; Economia e Lavoro; Empirical Economics, European Journal of Political
Economy; Journal of Evolutionary Economics; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Economic Surveys; Journal of Income Distribution; Industrial
and Corporate Change; Labour; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Panoeconomicus; QA - Rivista dell'associazione Rossi-Doria; Research Policy Rivista di
Politica Economica; Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Insegnamento Codice Anno Corso - Frequentare
APPLIED MACROECONOMICS AND POLICIES 10596367 2021/2022 Economia politica - Economics
POLITICA ECONOMICA 1017517 2021/2022 Economia e finanza
POLITICA ECONOMICA 1017517 2020/2021 Scienze economiche
APPLIED MACROECONOMICS AND POLICIES 1051843 2020/2021 Economia politica - Economics
MACROECONOMIA CORSO AVANZATO 1026555 2019/2020 Economia politica
APPLIED MACROECONOMICS AND POLICIES 1051843 2019/2020 Economia politica
POLITICA ECONOMICA 1017517 2018/2019 Management e diritto d'impresa
POLITICA ECONOMICA 1017517 2018/2019 Scienze economiche
APPLIED MACROECONOMICS AND POLICIES 1051843 2018/2019 Economia politica
MACROECONOMIA CORSO AVANZATO 1026555 2017/2018 Economia politica
POLITICA ECONOMICA 1017517 2017/2018 Management e diritto d'impresa
APPLIED MACROECONOMICS AND POLICIES 1051843 2017/2018 Economia politica
POLITICA ECONOMICA 1017517 2016/2017 Management e diritto d'impresa
POLITICHE ECONOMICHE EUROPEE 1017228 2016/2017 Intermediari, finanza internazionale e risk management
MACROECONOMIA CORSO AVANZATO 1051849 2016/2017 Economia politica
POLITICHE ECONOMICHE EUROPEE 1017229 2016/2017 Intermediari, finanza internazionale e risk management
Titolo Rivista Anno
Predicting the spread of COVID-19 in Italy using machine learning: Do socio-economic factors matter? STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS 2021
Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS 2021
Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries THE NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 2021
Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through ECONOMIC MODELLING 2021
Sentiments in sovereign risk crises: a set-identified Markov-switching approach 2020
Correlates of the (soft) skills of Italian undergraduate students JOURNAL OF PUBLIC FINANCE AND PUBLIC CHOICE (PRINT) 2020
Bureaucratic reshuffling and efficiency. Do n-competing bureaus determine inefficient results? MATHEMATICS 2019
La condotta fiscale italiana nella visione degli economisti del FMI 2019
Effetti macroeconomici della legge di bilancio per il 2019 2019
Analisi quantitativa degli effetti del reddito di cittadinanza 2019
Gli effetti attesi del D.L. 4/2019 (quota 100) sull'evoluzione della pensionistica. Un esercizio di simulazione a lungo termine 2019
L'impatto macroeconomico dell'introduzione di quota 100 nel sistema pensionistico 2019
Regime-switches in the rollover of sovereign risk 2019
Vicarelli's Keynes and the new-keynesian analytical method JOURNAL OF POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS 2018
Vicarelli's Keynes and the New-Keynesian analytical method JOURNAL OF POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS 2018
Le previsioni pensionistiche e gli effetti macroeconomici del contenimento della spesa previdenziale 2017
Stagnazione secolare. Lo stato del dibattito 2017
Produttività settoriale e decentramento contrattuale 2017
Il consolidamento fiscale può stimolare la crescita riducendo il rischio di default e i tassi di interesse? Il caso della periferia dell'Eurozona 2015
Dalla rottura non governata della UE all'Europa federale. Scenari e implicazioni per il benessere economico e sociale nel "Centro" e nella "Periferia" della UE 2015
Dipartimento
ECONOMIA E DIRITTO
SSD

SECS-P/02