MASSIMILIANO TANCIONI

Assistant Professor of Economics Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Economics & Law

Other affiliations: CRISS, FORMIT, FGB

Address: Dipartimento di Economia e Diritto,
Via del Castro Laurenziano 9,
00161, Rome, Italy

Email: massimiliano.tancioni@uniroma1.it

Tel: +39 06 49766777

Research interests
Macroeconomics, Macrodynamics and business cycle analysis; Labor market dynamics; Time series and Bayesian econometrics; Econometric modeling, simulation and forecasting;

Curriculum vitae
Current position
2006 -2011: Assistant Professor – Department of Economics & Law (former Department of Public Economics), Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

Past positions
2004 - 2006: Post-Doc Research Grant, Department of Public Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
2003 - 2004: Researcher, DSS-DISE, Istat - Italian Statistical Office, Italy
1999 - 2000: Research Grant, CEIS - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" and Istat - Italian Statistical Office, Italy
1999: Research Grant, CNR - Italian National Research Office, Italy

Other professional experiences (in the last 5 years)
2011: Senior expert in labor market forecasting (consultant). EU-funded EUNES project (Europeaid), Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
2010 - 2011: Senior expert in pension expenditure forecasting (project responsible). RGS-MEF - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze, Rome, Italy
2010: Research consultant. Expert in microeconometric analysis. ISFOL - Istituto per lo sviluppo della formazione professionale dei lavoratori, Rome, Italy
2010: Senior expert in macroeconomic modeling and simulation analysis (consultant). EU-funded SMART-SEC project, FORMIT - Fondazione per la Ricerca sulla Migrazione e sulla Integrazione delle Tecnologie, Rome, Italy
2009 - 2011: Senior expert in econometrics and labor market forecasting (consultant). FGB - Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini, Rome, Italy
2008 - 2009: Senior expert in macroeconomic modeling and simulation analysis (consultant). EU-funded VIS project (Vulnerability of Information Systems), FORMIT - Fondazione per la Ricerca sulla Migrazione e sulla Integrazione delle Tecnologie, Rome, Italy
2006 - 2007: Economic consultant. Department of Economic Affairs - Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Rome, Italy
2006 - 2009: Senior economic consultant. Sviluppo Lazio Research Office, Rome, Italy

Education
2004: PhD in Economics, Open University, Milton Keynes, U.K. Supervisors: Roberto Simonetti and Andrew Trigg. Dissertation: “Technology shocks, Business Cycle and Employment: An Empirical Analysis” – Graduation committee: Ron Smith (Birkbeck College, London U.K.), Suma Athereye (Brunel University, Uxbridge, U.K. and UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, NL).
2000 - 2001: MSc in Economics modules (Econometrics, Advanced Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Topics in advanced New-Keynesian economics - Bloomsbury seminars). Birkbeck College, London, U.K.
1998 - Laurea in Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy - Summa cum laude. Supervisor: Claudio Gnesutta.

Teaching
2007 - 2012: Advanced Econometrics ("corso di laurea specialistica" in Economics - master level), Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
2005 - 2012: Econometrics II, PhD in Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
2005 - 2012: Econometrics III, PhD in Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
2009 - 2010: Political Economy, ("corso di laurea triennale" - undergraduate level), Sapienza University of Rome, Civitavecchia, Italy
2007 - 2009: Topics in Political Economy ("corso di laurea specialistica" in Economics - master level), Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

Conferences and invited seminars (from 2005 to present)
2012: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS-FR Paris). EU-FP7 AUGUR - Challenges in the World 2030 - AUGUR Paris meeting on public policies. Paris, France

2012: Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (WIIW). EU-FP7 AUGUR - Challenges in the World 2030 - 8th AUGUR Workshop. Vienna, Austria
2011: Sapienza University of Rome, Ph.D. school in Economics. Seminar: "Technology, growth and the business cycle: Theories and empirical evidence". Rome, Italy
2011: Cedefop. Expert conference: Building on the skill forecasts: comparing methods and applications. Presentation: "The FGB-LM simulation model: forecasting job and skill needs in Italy". Thessaloniki, Greece
2011: Italy's Ministry of Labour: EU-funded project FORJOBS final conference. Presentation: "The FORJOBS model structure: the Italian national-level model and the regional breakdown". Rome, Italy
2010: Castilla-la Mancha Employment Office: EU-funded project FORJOBS conference. Presentation: "The FORJOBS model structure: the Spanish and Castilla-La Mancha regional model". Toledo, Spain
2010: Bulgarian Employment Agency: EU-funded project FORJOBS conference. Presentation: "The FORJOBS model structure: the Bulgarian model". Sofia, Bulgaria
2010: Employment Agency of the Czech Republic: EU-funded project FORJOBS conference. Presentation: "The FORJOBS model structure: the the Czech Republic model". Prague, Czech Republic
2010: Sapienza University of Rome, Master in European and international policies and crisis management. Seminar: "Behind the financial crisis: the role of income distribution". Rome, Italy
2010: European Commission: EU-funded project SMART-SEC conference. Presentation: "The economic effects of disruptions in critical communication and information infrastructures". Brussels, Belgium
2009: Sapienza University of Rome, Seminars of the Department of Public Economics. Seminar: "Contractionary Productivity Improvements: Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation". Rome, Italy
2009: European Commission: EU-funded project VIS conference. Presentation: "Vulnerability of information systems: predicted effects of service ". Brussels, Belgium
2008: 12th Annual International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, University of Crete. Presentation: “Monetary Policy, Rule of Thumb Consumers and External Habits: an International comparison”. Rethymno, Crete island, Greece
2008: American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, Session: Technological change and Stock Price Dynamics. Presentation: “Stock Price Volatility and Patent Citation Dynamics: the case of the pharmaceutical industry”. New Orleans, LA, USA.
2007: CRISS Workshop Welfare State tra pubblico e privato, tra universlismo e selettività, Department of Economics, University of Siena. Presentation: “Le prospettive del sistema previdenziale”. Siena, Italy
2007: DIME Conference Finance Innovation and Inequality: questions and implications for future research, Regents Park Conference Center. Presentation: “Stock Price Volatility and Radical Innovation”. London, U.K..
2007: EAEPE Conference Economic Growth, development and Institutions, University of Porto. Presentation: “Innovations and the labor share”. Porto, Portugal.
2006: EAEPE Conference Developing Economies, Multiple Trajectories, Multiple Developments, Galatasaray University. Presentation “Innovations Wages and Profits”. Istanbul, Turkey.
2005: Joint UNECE/ILO/Eurostat Conference on the Quality of Work, ILO - International Labour Organization. Presentation: “Help Wanted and Job Vacancies: An Analysis of the Predictive Capabilities of the CSA-Isfol Time Series for Employment and Unemployment Fluctuations”. Geneva, Switzerland
2005: Seminars of the Faculty of Economics of the University of Urbino. Seminar: " The RBC Story and the Conditional Countercyclical Dynamics of Hours Worked: A SVAR-based Analysis". Urbino, Italy
2005: Conference on Social Pacts, Employment and Growth: A Reappraisal of Ezio Tarantelli’s Thought, Sapienza University of Rome. Presentation: “STEP: A Forecasting Model for the Italian Labour Market”. Rome, Italy
2005: Workshop on Innovation, demand and industrial dynamics, Bocconi University. Presentation: “Wage-Profit Dynamics and Innovation”. Milan, Italy

Publications
Journals
"R&D, patents and Stock Return volatility", (with Mariana Mazzucato), Journal of Evolutionary Economics, forthcoming 2012.
"Real rigidities, productivity improvements and investment dynamics", (with Francesco Giuli), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012, 36 (7): 110-118; published on line in 2011, doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2011.09.002.
"The FGB-LM model: structure and recent forecasts of the Italian labour-market stocks and flows", (with Giuseppe Ciccarone), Cedefop Research Papers, 2012, n. 18: 147-168, Publication Office of the EU, Luxenbourg.
"Dinamiche di transizione ed esiti lavorativi" (with Michele Giammatteo and Emiliano Mandrone), Economia & Lavoro, 2012, n. 1: 79-103
"Monetary Policy, Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External habits: a G7 Comparison", (with Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Lorenza Rossi), Applied Economics, 2011, 43(21): 2721-2738, published on line in 2010 on Applied Economics iFirst, 1-18.
"Nominal v. real wage rigidities in New Keynesian models with hiring costs: A Bayesian evaluation", (with Marianna Riggi) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2010, 34(7): 1305-1324.
"Il nuovo modello di previsione dei flussi del mercato del lavoro FGB-MdL: aspetti di metodo e di struttura", (with Francesco Giuli), Economia&Lavoro, 2009, n. 3: 29-50.
“Innovations, wages and profits”, (with Mario Pianta)", Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Fall 2008, vol. 31, n. 1: 103-125
“Innovation and idiosyncratic risk: an industry- and firm-level analysis”, (with Mariana Mazzucato) , Industrial and Corporate Change, 2008, 17(4): 779-811
“Il modello FGB-STEP in prospettiva comparativa”, (with A. Bagnai, F. Carlucci, e R. Schiattarella), Economia & Lavoro, 2007, n. 1: 193-196.

“Un modello di simulazione per l’analisi del mercato del lavoro”, (with A. Bagnai, F. Carlucci, e R. Schiattarella), Economia & Lavoro, 2006, n. 3: 123-149.
“Indices that Capture Creative Destruction: Questions and Implications”, (with Mariana Mazzucato), Revue d’Economie Industrielle, 2/2005, n. 110: 199-220.
“The Italian Public Pension System Expenditure: Some Simulation Results from Sensitivity Analysis”, Rivista di Statistica Ufficiale, 2002, n. 2: 5-31, Franco Angeli, Rome.
“A Macroeconometric Model for the Analysis of the Impact of Technological Change and Trade on Employment”, (with R. Simonetti), Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, (2002) vol. 13: 185-221 London.

Working papers
"Price-setting, monetary policy and the contractionary effects of productivity improvements: Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation" (with F. Giuli), forthcoming as WP Dipartimento di Economia pubblica, 2011.
"Contractionary Effects of Supply Shocks: Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation" (with F. Giuli), WP Dipartimento di Economia pubblica n. 131/2010.
"Firm-specific capital, Productivity Shocks and Investment Dynamics" (with F. Giuli), WP del Dipartimento di Economia pubblica n. 120/2009.
“Firm-specific capital, supply shocks and investment dynamics” (with F.Giuli) SSRN – MIT Economics dep. WP, 2009.
“Innovation and idiosyncratic risk: an industry and firm-level analysis” (with M. Mazzucato) OU-IKD Working Paper, n.7/2008, Milton Keynes, U.K. –
“Nominal v. Real Wage Rigidities in New Keynesian Models with Hiring Costs: A Bayesian Evaluation” (with M. Riggi), WP del Dipartimento di Economia Pubblica, n. 107/2008.
“Monetary Policy, Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: an International Comparison” (with G. Di Bartolomeo e L. Rossi), WP del Dep. of Economics, University of Crete, n. 0727/2007
“Disentangling Factors Behind Training Participation in Italy” (with G. Croce), WP del Dipartimento di Economia Pubblica, n. 101/2007 – Under revision, Labour.
“Stock Price Volatility and Patent Citation Dynamics: the Case of the Pharmaceutical Industry” (with M. Mazzucato), OU Discussion Papers in Economics, vol. 55/2007, Milton Keynes, U.K. – Under revision Industrial and corporate Change.
“Rule of Thumb Consumers and External Habits: an International Comparison” (with G. Di Bartolomeo e L. Rossi), WP del Dipartimento di Economia Pubblica, n. 97/2006.
“Creative Destruction and Idiosyncratic Risk” (with M. Mazzucato), OU Discussion Papers in Economics, n. 50/2005, Milton Keynes, U.K.
“I Trattamenti Monetari non Pensionistici: approccio computazionale e risultati della sperimentazione sugli archivi INPS-DM10, Anni 1999-2001” (with V. Spinelli), Contributi Istat n. 28/2004, Istat, Roma.
“L’indagine CIS II sull’innovazione tecnologica nei servizi: un’analisi quantitativa” (with G. Cainelli, N. De Liso, G. Perani, M. Savona), WP dipartimento di Economia dell’Università di Ferrara, n. 15/2004.
“Il nuovo modello dinamico di previsione della spesa pensionistica. Formalizzazione algebrica delle relazioni di funzionamento, struttura della programmazione, basi di dati” (with F. Ceccato and D. Tuzi), Documenti Istat n. 1/2003, Istat, Rome.

“Un modello di previsione della spesa locale per l’assistenza”(with R. Cogno), Contributi di Ricerca n. 166/2002, IRES Piemonte, Torino.

Books and chapters in books
Macroeconometria applicata, forthcoming 2012, Carocci, Rome.
"Simulazione a lungo termine della spesa pensionistica e del saldo previdenziale", in Pizzuti, R. (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2011, pp 373-388, (2011) Esselibri, Napoli.
"Le fasi della crisi attuale e le sue interpretazioni", in Pizzuti, R. (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2010, pp 34-48, (2009) Academia Universa Press ,Milano.
"Le fasi della crisi attuale e le sue interpretazioni", in Pizzuti, R. (editor), Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2010, pp 34-48, (2009) Academia Universa Press ,Milano.
"An empirical investigation of the distribution of training among workers in Italy", (with G. Croce) in Burgio, G., Capparucci, M., Sancetta, G., Todisco, E. (editors), "Mercato del lavoro e protezione sociale nell'Unione Europea", (2009), Casa Editrice Università La Sapienza, Roma.
"Long-term sustainability of the Italian public pension system. Policy and simulations", (with R. Pizzuti) in Burgio, G., Capparucci, M., Sancetta, G., Todisco, E. (editors), "Mercato del lavoro e protezione sociale nell'Unione Europea", (2009), Casa Editrice Università La Sapienza, Roma.
“Job-vacancies as employment predictor: dynamic properties of the series”, in Mandrone, E. (editor) Job-vacancies in the Italian labour market: the New ISFOL Help-Wanted time series, pp 54-64, (2008) ISFOL UE-FSE, Roma.
"Simulazioni a lungo termine degli effetti della revisione dei coefficienti di trasformazione e di una proposta", (with R. Pizzuti), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale 2008, pp 325-336, (2008) UTET ,Torino.
“La transizione al pensionamento: ruolo delle componenti economiche” (with E. Mandrone), in Partecipation Labour Unemployment Survey, pp 244-270 (2006), ISFOL UE-FSE, Roma.
“La partecipazione alla formazione dei lavoratori dipendenti del settore privato” (with G. Croce e S. Lay), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2006) UTET ,Torino.
“Le determinanti delle scelte di uscita dal mercato del lavoro” (with E. Mandrone), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2006) UTET ,Torino
“Simulazione a lungo termine della spesa e del saldo previdenziale” (with R. Pizzuti e M. Raitano), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2006), par 4.4.2: 294-324 UTET ,Torino
“Sistema pensionistico e mercato del lavoro: due approfondimenti analitici connessi ai mutamenti introdotti dalla riforma previdenziale del 2004” (par 4.3.1 with V. Spinelli; 4.3.2 with E. Mandrone), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2006), UTET ,Torino
“Le previsioni a medio-lungo termine della spesa pensionistica e della spesa previdenziale del sistema pubblico” (with R. Pizzuti), in Pizzuti, R. (editor) Rapporto sullo Stato Sociale, (2005) UTET ,Torino
“Il modulo previdenza assistenza” (with F. Ceccato), in IRES-IRPET-ISTAT La previsione della spesa sociale regionale: il modello MARSS, (2001) ISTAT, Roma, cap. 6: 169-200

Research grants
2008 - 2010 Beyond the short run: Business cycle, productivity growth and market imperfections. Project's responsible: Enrico Saltari. Research units: Sapienza Università di Roma, Università degli Studi di Urbino Carlo Bo, Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata. Project typology: PRIN 2008 (24 months)