MARCELLO VITALE

The Ecological Modelling Laboratory was established in 2006 to integrate the structural and functional aspects of ecological systems within a modelling framework that enables the prediction of temporal and spatial trends of specific ecological parameters.

The initial members of the laboratory were Marcello Vitale and Fabio Attorre, both from the Department of Botany (as it was called in 2006). Their collaboration on vegetation and natural ecosystems led to the development of several works applying statistical and mathematical analysis techniques to predict the temporal and spatial variation of biodiversity and the distribution of plant species in the context of climate change.

The laboratory later expanded to include new members such as Michele De Sanctis, a botanical expert, and Mario Di Traglia, an excellent statistician, who enhanced the quantitative component. The synergy with the GIS and Vegetation Laboratory has resulted in participation in significant international projects, including those funded by the European Union (Horizon and LIFE), the United Nations (UNCCC and UNDP), and the Italian Development Cooperation (Mozambique, Yemen, Papua New Guinea, El Salvador, Cuba).

Currently, the laboratory comprises three PhD students, ten undergraduates, and two research fellows. Since its inception, it has produced seventy peer-reviewed papers and numerous presentations in Italy and abroad.

Scientific research focuses on specific areas such as:

a) Measuring and modelling approaches to primary productivity and water use assessment in different ecosystems;

b) The effects of climate change on ecosystems and plant distribution;

c) The impact of atmospheric pollutants (nitrogen oxides, ozone, volatile organic compounds) on the structural and physiological characteristics of plants;

d) Carbon cycle assessment for forest plant communities under different climate scenarios, to distinguish between assimilation and respiration rates (litter decomposition and soil respiration rates);

e) Land use and land use change assessment for implementing spatial decision support systems to manage and mitigate the effects of land degradation and desertification in semi-arid Mediterranean and Arabian/African areas;

f) Statistical approaches for predictive modelling of non-linear dynamic processes (plant distribution, intra-specific competition, resource consumption, canopy structural and/or functional damages induced by air pollutants and climate impacts).