demographic models

Course objectives

Learning goals The primary educational goal of the course is the students' learning of the main problems, methods and models of mathematical demography. Knowledge and understanding. After attending the course, the students know and understand the most commonly used methodologies for analysing demographic processes. Applying knowledge and understanding. At the end of the course students are able to apply the specific methods and models of the discipline to concrete cases, even in multidisciplinary contexts (socio-demographic, bio-demographic, actuarial, economic). Making judgements. Students develop critical skills through the application of methods and models to real data of different complexity. They also develop critical sense through the comparison of alternative solutions to the same problem. Communication skills. Students, through the study and development of applications to concrete cases, acquire the technical-scientific language of the discipline, which must be used appropriately in the final oral examination. Communication skills are also developed through group activities. Learning skills. Students who pass the exam have learned a method of analysis that allows them to study the main demographic issues autonomously.

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ELISABETTA BARBI Lecturers' profile

Program - Frequency - Exams

Course program
The course introduces students to mathematical demography and aims to provide an in-depth knowledge of some specific methodologies for the analysis of demographic processes. Part 1 (8 hours): Demographic analysis in continuous notation. Hazard function, survival function, density function. Part 2 (28 hours): Parametric models for estimating mortality, fertility and migration. Unobserved heterogeneity and selection effects in the demographic phenomena. Lexis maps. Two-dimensional parametric models: Lee-Carter and its extensions, relational models. Method Part 3 (12 hours): Malthusian populations. Stationary and stable population models; semi-stable and quasi-stable populations.
Prerequisites
To address the teaching content it is important to have acquired the fundamental concepts of demography, mathematical analysis, statistical inference and probability.
Books
- Preston, Heuveline, Guillot “Demography”, Blackwell 2001 - Lecture notes
Teaching mode
The course is structured in theoretical and practical lectures. Lectures are offered onsite and, if necessary, online.
Frequency
Attendance of teaching classes is not compulsatory but strongly recommended.
Exam mode
Oral examination at the end of the course aimed at ascertaining both the acquisition of the theoretical aspects and the ability to solve concrete problems.
Bibliography
CASELLI G., VALLIN J. & WUNSCH G. (2006), Demography – Analysis and Synthesis. A Treatise in Population. Elsevier. De SANTIS G. (2010) Demografia, Il Mulino, Bologna. M. LIVI BACCI (1999), Introduzione alla demografia, Loescher Ed., Torino. M. Livi Bacci (2016) Storia minima della popolazione del mondo, Il Mulino, Bologna. (5^ ed; 1^ ed. 1998) M. LIVI BACCI (2017), A Concise History of World Population, Wiley & Sons Ltd. M. LIVI BACCI (2017) Our Shrinking Planet, Wiley and Sons Ltd. J.H. LUNDQUIST, D.L. ANDERTON, D. YAUKEY (2015), Demography. The Study of Human Population, Waveland Press. PRESTON, HEUVELINE, GUILLOT, Demography. Modelling Population Processes (2001), Blackwell.
Lesson mode
The course is structured in theoretical and practical lectures. Lectures are offered onsite and, if necessary, online.
  • Lesson code10589631
  • Academic year2024/2025
  • CourseStatistical Sciences
  • CurriculumDemografico sociale
  • Year1st year
  • Semester2nd semester
  • SSDSECS-S/04
  • CFU6
  • Subject areaStatistico applicato