HISTORICAL SERIES ANALYSIS

Course objectives

The course aims at showing, both from a graphical point of view and from a methodological one, the main tools for analyzing economic and financial time series. Students will also learn to use to the statistical software R as a tool for applying statistical methodologies to real data, as well as for understanding the theory behind a model. Students who pass the exam will know the main concepts and procedures for model building when analyzing economic and financial time series. Students who pass the exam will have skills for data analysis: on the basis of the methodologies introduced in the course and of the knowledge of the R software tools, they will be able to choose the best model to represent real economic and financial phenomena. Starting from real data they will be able to find the best strategy to represent data. They will also be able to analyze in a critical way the obtained results, highlighting pros and cons of the chosen procedures. Students’ skills are stimulated by tackling real case studies and developing a research project which will be discussed in class. The evaluation of the report will also concern students’ communication skills and their ability to explain what they learned and the results of the quantitative analysis. The deep comprehension of the learned methodologies, will allow the student to understand more general models not explained in the course, evaluating advantages and disadvantages.

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DOMENICO VITALE Lecturers' profile

Program - Frequency - Exams

Course program
Fundamental concepts in time series analysis The deterministic components of a time series and decomposition techniques The stochastic components of a time series ARMA models for stationary time series ARIMA models for non-stationary time series Model specification, parameter estimation and diagnostics ARCH and GARCH models for volatility estimation Time series forecasting Hints on multivariate time series analysis (VAR, cointegration and VECM) Applications to financial time series in R software environment Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Prerequisites
Basic knowledge of statistics
Books
Cryer J.D., Chan K.S. (2008) Time Series Analysis With Applications in R (2a ed) Hyndman R.J., Athanasopoulos G. (2021) Previsione: principi e pratica (3a ed), OTexts: Melbourne, Australia Lucchetti R.J. (2015) Appunti di analisi delle serie storiche Teaching materials provided by the lecturer Letture integrative: Shumway R.H., Stoffer D.S. (2016) Time Series Analysis and Its Applications with R Examples (4a ed) Brockwell P.J., David R.A. (2012-16) Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting (2-3a ed) Hamilton J.D. (1994) Time Series Analysis
Frequency
Not mandatory, but recommended.
Exam mode
Written test with the aid of R software for real time serie analysis with possible oral examination. The student must demonstrate knowledge of the theoretical concepts, be able to perform a statistical analysis in the R environment and provide a proper interpretation of the results.
Lesson mode
Traditional (face-to-face) teaching will alternate with laboratory experiences
  • Lesson code1016857
  • Academic year2024/2025
  • CourseFinance and insurance
  • CurriculumFinanza
  • Year1st year
  • Semester2nd semester
  • SSDSECS-S/01
  • CFU6
  • Subject areaMatematico, statistico, informatico