Statistical Sciences

1. Population Estimation. Population Estimation in LDC. Present and resident population. The evaluation of the population in Italy. 2. Population Forecasting. The synthetic model. The analytical model (cohort-component method). Mortality, fertility and migration hypotheses building 3. The Rogers multiregional model. 4. The stochastic model. The Bertino and Sonnino proposal. 5. Other population forecasting with reference to school populatoin, household projection, urban/rural population.

At least one exam of Demography (6 or 9 CFU)

1.1 T. Moultrie, R. Dorrington, A. Hill, K. Hill, I. Timaeus, B. Zaba. Tools for Demographic Estimation, IUSSP, 2013, Chapter One 1.2 G. Gallo, et al. Il confronto anagrafe censimento. Paper available on Moodle. 1.3 M. Natale, L’anagrafe della popolazione, rivista della SIEDS. 2.1 G. Micheli (a cura di), Demografie, Chapter 2. 3.2 O. Casacchia, C. Reynaud, Il modello multiregionale, Paper available on Moodle. 3.3 O. Casacchia, Tecniche di estinzione, Paper available on Moodle. 4.1 S. Bertino, E. Sonnino, Il software MUDEA, Paper available on Moodle. 4.2 S. Bertino, Istruzioni per il funzionamento del software MUDEA, software to download.

The contents are illustrated through a cycle of 36 lessons (each one 2 hours of lenght). One or two seminars and the presentation by the students of a report on their group activity are foreseen within these lessons. Class attendance, which is not mandatory, is strongly recommended.

Oral exam The test consists of an oral interview. For attending students, the first question is about the group work conducted on the stochastic forecasting model. Objectives of each single test The question is not relevant because the test is unique Weight of each paper in the final evaluation The question is not relevant because the evaluation is unique.

The contents are illustrated through a cycle of 36 lessons (each one 2 hours of lenght). One or two seminars and the presentation by the students of a report on their group activity are foreseen within these lessons. Class attendance, which is not mandatory, is strongly recommended.